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  • Feed Manufactures and Livestock Stakeholders Laud Government’s Decision to Lift Ban on GMOs in Kenya Background

    Wednesday, October 12th 2022,Feed Manufactures and Livestock Stakeholders Laud Government’s (AKEFEMA) Decision to Lift Ban on GMOs in Kenya.

    AKEFEMA says that the livestock sector in Kenya contributes about 15% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

    In addition, it employs over 50% of the agricultural labor force. As the current situation deteriorates, more animal feed millers and livestock farmers continue to close businesses.

    As a result, three of the Big Four Agenda objectives, namely Food Security, Manufacturing, and Healthcare are at stake. AKEFEMA says that as such, urgent interventions are required, including allowing sourcing of soya bean meal and yellow maize from both GMO and non-GMO sources on a continuous basis.

    Secretary General for AKEFEMA Mr Kinoti has stated importantly, that the ban on importation of GMO foods continues to cripple the country’s ability to respond promptly to food and feed crises, despite the availability of overwhelming scientific evidence that GMOs approved by close to 70 govts  around the world are safe for human and animal consumption.

    The feed forum however states that the country also has ing a fully functional robust policy, legal and institutional framework for governing the use of GMOs

    AKEFEMA alongside other stakeholders (including farmer’s cooperatives, breeders, livestock producers and processors among others) issued a statement on the then status of the animal feed sub-sector petitioning the government to rescue the feed sector from eminent collapse due the escalating prices of raw materials used in feed milling.

    AKEFEMA however states that it’s Coincident that the cries was heard. The cries of the livestock sector players, H.E the President Emiritus Uhuru Kenyatta, during the Mashujaa Day celebration in Kirinyaga County directed the Cabinet Secretaries for Agriculture and The National Treasury to implement a workable framework that would help reduce the cost animal and poultry feed.

    Subsequently, the PS, State Department for Livestock immediately convened a Working Committee that developed the above framework within the timelines given by the H.E. the President.

    The Committee recommended short, medium and long-term policy, regulatory, legislative and administrative proposals in order to address the situation.

    On 10th December, 2021, the Boss or rather the CS, National Treasury published a Gazette Notice waiving import duty for registered feed milling companies to import raw materials for exclusive use by feed manufacturers.

    However, the Gazette notice included a quality requirement that the imported materials had to be 100% non-GMO, since there was a ban on importation and use of GMO materials into Kenya, which had been in place since 2012.

    This complicated the ability of the Gazetted millers to source the raw materials in the global market due to unavailability of the 100% non-GMO specification as well as the very high global prices of non-GMO materials and therefore the projected high cost of landing them in Kenya.

    Consequently, in February AKEFEMA and its partners petitioned the CS, Agriculture to initiate the requisite process of lifting the ban on GMO products, as one of the key mitigating factors towards the escalating animal feed costs that had led to the closure of many livestock enterprises.

    AKEFEMA and livestock stakeholders engaged widely with the local and international experts including The National Biosafety Authority, the Kenya Universities Biotechnology Consortium (KUBICO) and other researchers.

    The secretary General Mr Kinoti notes that there are seven countries in Africa that have approved growing and use GMOs including of South Africa currently cultivating 2.7 million hectares of GM crops, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Malawi, Eswatini and Ghana. Further afield, Brazil cultivates 53 Million hectares, India -12 Million hectares, CCanada -12 million hectares China – 3.2 million hectares, among 70 countries that have either been growing or importing GMOs for more than 20 years.

    Further, The European Union, with it’s highly competitive livestock sector is 70% import-dependent on high-protein crops, most of which are GMOs imported from countries with 90% adoption of soybean and maize.

    AKEFEMA has noted with concern that the GMOs have been grown since 1996 so it is no longer a new technology.

    By 2019, 17 million farmers from 29 countries grew 191 million hectares of GMO crops and 19 of these countries were developing countries.

    Currently the Government has since then made the decision to lift the ban on the importation and use of GMO products in the country.

    AKEFEMA has come out profoundly to thank and applaud the current reign for lifting the ban on GMOs indicating that Kenya has lost two decades of scientific progress, and it is evident that the ban constrained bio-innovation, research and entrepreneurship developments in this key frontier of science and knowledge.

    Meanwhile, other countries have moved forward as the scientific community is now talking of genome editing whose discoverers won the Nobel Prize in the year 2020.

    AKEFEMA now states that it’s , not too late, Kenya has the requisite capacity to catch up, and be the leader and a reference in the region. The SG notes that the country should also impress products of biotechnology because it’s in widespread used in the realm of human and veterinary medicine such as in the management of diabetes, development of vaccines.

    The association as however called for unity and support to impress the ban lift on GMOs saying it has stifled the feed industry, and the livestock sector in many ways such as the ban limited the sources of feed raw materials with serious negative consequences, mainly unavailability and high cost, leading to loss of jobs and livelihoods due to closure/scale down of livestock farms, collapse of about 40 milling industries in the last 2 years.

    For instance, due to the ban, AKEFEMA says that members could not access soya beans from the open market, such as the countries that grow GMO products such as Brazil, Argentina and USA which is a key source of feed proteins.

    The association now affirms that the lifting of the ban on GMOs, Kenya is now able to source key ingredients from outside our southern neighbours, such as  Zambia, Tanzania, Malawi and Uganda.

    Finally, AKEFEMA briefs that Kenya is a pluralistic democratic society, where ideas and freedom of choice should be allowed to thrive and compete, in all spheres ranging from scientists, practitioners of science, and users to be given unhindered space to develop and  adopt all technologies that are products of sound and scientific evidence based decision making.

    AKEFEMA now is urging the new reign scientists, learning and research forums, and the media, to intensify sensitization and public education and enlightenment fora, in making informed decisions.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Indigenous Foods Key To Tackling Changing Weather & Drought

     

    Indigenous seeds and food have been said to present great value in adapting to changing weather patterns, varied soil types, temperature, pressure, clouds, wind, humidity, and rainfall.

    African Biodiversity Network (ABN) General Coordinator, Dr. Fassil Gabeyehu, said indigenous seeds present great value in that they can withstand the challenges and hold the key to ending the ongoing drought in the horn of Africa region.

    He was speaking in Nairobi on Tuesday during a press briefing on the planned National Indigenous Seed and Food Culture Harvest fair as a build-up towards the World Food Day to be celebrated nationally in Kajiado County.

    Gabeyehu said that indigenous seeds are seeds that have been grown, selected, and managed by local communities through several generations and are naturally adapted through the influence of local environmental factors in their growing environments.

    He further said that indigenous seeds and food are resilient and that they are diverse in character and occur in several different forms. “These seeds and food are also resilient to threats arising from pests, disease, and human interventions and are heterogeneous and polymorphic,” added Gabeyehu.

    Participatory Ecological Land Use Management (PELUM) Country Coordinator of Kenya Rosinah Mbenya, announced the launch of the first National Indigenous Seed and Food Culture Harvest Fair and the location of the event during the briefing in Nairobi.

    “The National Indigenous Seed and Food Culture Harvest Fair, a disclosure to the fervent need to recognize that food production is an economical and socio-ecological function that links people with nature will kick off tomorrow on 12th October 2022 at the National Museums of Kenya, Nairobi, and will continue until 14th as a precursor to the World Food Day celebrations on 16th October 2022,” said Manny.

    Mbenya highlighted that there are numerous benefits gained when indigenous seeds and foods are promoted and supported.

    “Promoting and supporting indigenous seeds and food assures sustainability of not only our food sufficiency but also an integral life support system that provides life and food-secure future thereby reducing poverty, enhancing food and nutrition security, besides improving natural resources and living in harmony with nature,” stated Mbenya.

    She further noted that the National Indigenous Seed and Food Culture Harvest Fair showcases the county’s bountiful inheritance of genetic resources.

    “The National Indigenous Seed and Food Culture Harvest Fair showcase a rich and diverse seed and food culture, which is a measure of the country’s bountiful inheritance of genetic resources, a treasure trove of our traditional knowledge and innovations, which reach out to the current future generations,” reiterated Mbenya.

    A member of the Biodiversity and Biosafety Association Kenya, Anne Maina listed some actions to be taken to support and promote indigenous seed and food systems.

    “To fully support and promote our indigenous seed and food system we recommend revitalization of local food production systems traditions at the household level, development of laws to promote and support Farmer Managed Seed Systems (FMSS), promotion of agrobiodiversity and agro-ecological practices to enhance livelihoods through food and nutrition security amongst others,” said Maina.

    Maina further recognized the stakeholders as the representatives of smallholder farmer groups, civil society groups, Community-Based Organizations(CBOs), Faith-Based Organizations (FBOs), and consumer networks.

    “We are the representatives of smallholder farmer groups, civil society groups, Community-Based Organizations (CBOs), Faith-Based Organizations (FBOs), and consumer networks including BIBA Kenya, Inter-Sectoral Forum on Agrobiodiversity and Agroecology (ISFAA), PELUM Kenya, Seed Savers Network and African Biodiversity Network (ABN),” Maina stated.

  • Education stakeholders commit to teaching coding in schools as building blocks for digital economy

    Education stakeholders commit to teaching coding in schools as building blocks for digital economy

    • KAIS and Kodris hold a symposium to sensitize stakeholders on the importance of teaching coding to young learners.
    • Up to 55% of jobs in Kenya will require some level of digital skills by 2030.
    • Globally, employment in computer and IT occupations are projected to grow 13% from 2020 to 2030, faster than the average for all occupations.

    Education stakeholders have affirmed their commitment to the early introduction of the coding curriculum in schools to help learners acquire technical skills relevant to a digital economy. Technology is rapidly changing the landscape of the workforce with employers across the world increasingly seeking a digitally skilled labor force.

    It is projected that by 2030, 50 – 55% of all jobs in Kenya will require some level of digital skills with the demand being primarily driven by enterprises adopting digital technologies.

    It is against this backdrop that the Kenya Association of International Schools (KAIS) in partnership with Education Technologies firm, Kodris Africa and Kenya Commercial Bank on Thursday convened a Digital skills symposium that brought together various stakeholders from the education and ICT sectors.

    The event delved into the computing and coding curriculum and the importance of incorporating digital skills in primary and secondary schools. Also present were tech giants Microsoft, Google Safaricom, and Liquid Telcom among others.

    In the last two decades, curriculum reforms have been driven by rapid technological and social changes. However, while the importance of digital skills has been recognized, there has been less of a focus—particularly in emerging markets—on the scale of demand for these skills, and the models that can be used to teach them.

    Speaking during the event, Jane Mwangi, KAIS Head of Secretariat, underscored the need to train learners on digital skills from the elementary level saying, “If you look at more developed countries like Singapore and Japan, they have been teaching coding to their learners from the kindergarten level, but as we have also done that as international schools, we are glad that public and private schools are finally catching up. We have no option but to make coding part of our lifestyle,” she said.

    Speaking during the event that was attended by close to 100 International Primary and Secondary Schools, Jack Ngare who is also head of Google in Africa said the only way Kenya and Africa are going to stay on par with developed nations is by introducing coding at the elementary level of schooling.

    “Coding is one of the fundamental building blocks in IT and empowering our people to be able to understand and build some of the technological products that we consume is why we need to start teaching coding in this country at zero option. Rather than just being consumers of technology, we build it as well. We were left behind by the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd industrial revolutions, are we going to allow ourselves to be left behind by the 4th industrial revolution too?”

    Managing Director, of Microsoft Africa Development Centre, Catherine Muraga said coding has become so central to all career paths adding, “the need to teach learners how to solve problems through coding has become a lot more important that we have to pay attention. It is as important as English or French in communication. We have to make sure our children are well equipped for efficiency and productivity.”

    In Kenya, the demand for digital skills training is expected to surge as we approach the next decade. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the speed of this change. 70% of demand is expected to be for foundational skills, followed by 23 % for non-ICT intermediate skills.

    Kodris Africa is the only organization offering a curriculum approved by the Kenya Institute of Curriculum Development (KICD). Speaking at the event, Kodris Africa CEO, Mugumo Munene emphasized the importance of teaching learners more than just how to use computer applications.

    “If you talk to experts, they will tell you that the younger you start learning how to code the better it is.  In a world that is so connected, children need to learn digital skills such as coding from an early age. The curriculum we have developed is not necessarily for one segment of schools, it is cross-cutting and can be deployed by public schools, private schools, and international schools.”

    Coding involves translating instructions for a computer from human language to a language a machine/computer can understand. Technologies that we have come to rely on such as smartphones, ATM cards, mobile money, Internet banking, e-learning, and telemedicine all run on codes.

    Speaking on behalf of KICD, which is the body mandated to provide curricula and curriculum support materials, the Assistant Director of e-Learning, Charles Munene said that “In the last two decades, curriculum reforms have been driven by rapid technological and social changes. Coding is becoming the most in-demand job skill of the future, therefore, we must align our curriculum to this rising demand in the job market.”

    Countries like the US, China, England, Germany, and France among many others in the developed world have already made coding compulsory for grade-one learners.

    Globally, employment in computer and IT occupations is projected to grow 13% from 2020 to 2030, faster than the average for all occupations.

    The median annual wage for IT occupations was $91,250 in May 2020, which was higher than the median annual wage for all occupations of $41,950. Demand for IT skills is expected to be driven by cloud computing, the collection and storage of big data, and information security.

  • Kisii county releases anti-anthrax vaccine.

    Kisii county releases anti-anthrax vaccine.

    Kisii Deputy Governor Hon Dr. Robert Monda in Kisii Agricultural Training Center.
    Kisii Deputy Governor Hon Dr. Robert Monda in Kisii Agricultural Training Center.

    As farmers are in rush to prevent their animals from in Kisii County, Kisii County Deputy Governor Dr. Robert Monda flags off Anthrax Vaccination at ATC kisii.

    The deputy governor later said that the county has procured over 20,000 doses which will target Bomariba ward and Bonchari Sub County in Bonchari Constituency before the exercise is rolled out to the entire county consisting of 9 Constituencies.

    The authority has however advised Livestock farmers to adhere and normalize to present livestock for vaccination as the schedule.

     

     

     

  • Zamara Launches New Online Aggregator Portal to Increase Insurance Uptake

    Zamara Launches New Online Aggregator Portal to Increase Insurance Uptake

    Zamara Insurance Group CEO
    Zamara Insurance Group CEO.

    Nairobi, Kenya, Tuesday 4th October 2022 – Leading insurance broker, Zamara Group, has announced plans to invest KSh 100 million to upgrade its digital capabilities and customer service.

    The company said the program includes upgrades in its operations and technology, including launching a new online aggregator platform dubbed eZamara, that will have a full range of insurance and investment products.

    The portal will allow customers to compare products from different insurers in one place and create and manage their insurance policies online to increase insurance uptake in the country.

    “The digital transformation of the insurance industry will require a considerable amount of capital to invest. However, investing in digital technology will be necessary if insurers are to stay relevant to consumers, “said Zamara Group CEO Sundeep Raichura.

    Zamara Group CEO, Sundeep Raichura, said the company was committed to providing its customers with the best possible experience and that the investment in digital would enable it to do so. “We are constantly evolving our business to meet the needs of our customers and this investment will enable us to provide a more convenient and efficient service,” he said.

    Mr Raichura said that the company’s investment in technology and customer service is part of its commitment to provide its clients with the best possible experience. “We are constantly striving to improve our service offering and to make it easier for our clients to do business with us.”

    “Over the years, we have seen a spike in insurance sales growth via the internet and other digital channels. As Zamara, we are committed to accelerating and enabling digital and financial inclusion in Kenya by providing easy access to financial solutions like pensions and insurance at scale.

    Zamara expects to invest between KSh 100 million over the next three years in technology as per its 2022-2025 strategic intention of disruption through technology, with a targeted 30% growth in its business via digital channels.

    The Zamara Online Aggregator portal aims to provide easy access to financial solutions like pensions and insurance at scale.

    The portal is designed to make it easier for individuals and businesses to get the insurance they need and to find products that fit their needs. By providing a single point of access, the portal will help to accelerate and enable digital and financial inclusion in Kenya.

    By launching the aggregator portal, the company aims at taking the customer experience to a new level, making it easy for clients to get the right cover at the right price.

    The Zamara aggregator combines everything an insured could want accurate quotes, reliable service and easy claim Management.

    Zamara is a diversified financial services group offering pensions, medical, insurance and actuarial services with a presence in six countries in Africa.

  • Nairobi International Book Fair is back Publishers keen on books for CBC

    Nairobi International Book Fair is back Publishers keen on books for CBC

    The Nairobi International Book Fair (NIBF) starts today at the Sarit Centre Expo Hall in Westlands. The event organized by the Kenya Publishers Association (KPA) runs till Sunday, October 2.

    This year’s event, now in its 23rd edition, comes as a big relief for Kenyan publishers, as they did not hold book fairs in 2020 and 2021, due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

    “We are excited that we are holding a physical book Fair, in Nairobi, after being unable to do so the last 2 years owing to COVID-19 disruption,” explains Mary Maina, the chairperson of NIBF. “Publishers were hard hit by this disruption: sales plummeted, some industry players closed shop, and the staff was retrenched. However, most publishers demonstrated resilience and they are slowly and gallantly soldering on.”

    Kenya Publishers Association (KPA) has said it will be steadfast in producing pedagogic books that are relevant to the newly established Competency Based Curriculum (CBC).

    Kiarie Kamau (pictured), the Chairman of KPA, expressed optimism that the desired educational goals in Kenya and especially those concerning Grade Six pupils will be achieved as the country transitions from the old 8-4-4 system to the new 2-6-3-3 structure that was unveiled by the government in 2017. “Storybooks and other ledgers that are applicable in the latest methodology for the pupils who are upgrading to junior secondary will be readily available courtesy of KPA.  I’m optimistic that the objective will be embraced by both tutors and students,” said Kiarie.

    He made the remarks yesterday ahead of the Nairobi International Book Fair (NIBF) that starts on Wednesday and ends on Sunday at the Sarit Centre Expo Hall in Westlands, Nairobi.

    The event, now in its 23rd edition, is organized under the auspices of KPA. This year’s Book Fair comes as a great relief for Kenyan publishers who, just like other citizens, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Covid-19 which resulted in 2020 and 2021 NIBF editions being canceled.

    Kiarie expressed gratitude that NIBF will be holding a physical book fair after the government lifted all mandatory Covid-19 restrictions.

     

  • Demand for Chinese books soaring, Kenyan publishers say

    Demand for Chinese books soaring, Kenyan publishers say

    The rising popularity of Chinese culture in Kenya is boosting the demand for books written in mandarin, local publishers said on Sunday.

    Kiarie Kamau, the chairman of Kenya Publishers Association (KPA), told Xinhua in Nairobi, the capital of Kenya that books written in mandarin that target school-going children are experiencing a spike in sales amid blossoming Sino-Kenya cultural relations.

    “Kenyan parents are encouraging their children to learn and understand the Chinese language and culture due to the rising global influence of China,” Kamau said during a forum on the upcoming Nairobi International Book fair.

    Kamau observed that mandarin is one of the foreign languages including French and German that are taught in Kenyan schools.

    He added that many learners in Kenya are keen to understand the Chinese language given the large number of local citizens working and doing business in China.

    “Through learning Chinese, Kenyans will be able to increase their exchanges of knowledge and technology with their Chinese counterparts,” said Kamau.

    He observed that the growing Chinese community in Kenya has also increased the demand for a local labor force that can communicate in mandarin end term.

  • Travel Consolidator AfroAtlas Partners with Ethiopian Airlines

    Travel Consolidator AfroAtlas Partners with Ethiopian Airlines

    By Vincent Munga

    Ethiopian airlines area manager Kenya, Seble Azene (right) and AfroAtlas CEO, Ahmed Ugas during the signing of the partnership
    Ethiopian airlines area manager Kenya, Seble Azene (right) and AfroAtlas CEO, Ahmed Ugas during the signing of the partnership

    Ethiopian Airlines (ET) has partnered with AfroAtlas, a travel platform in Eastern Africa to give modern and efficient convenient channels to travel partners.

    Afro Atlas, a travel consolidator that brings travel products on one platform will deliver ET’s New Distribution Capability (NDC) content.

    This means airport transfer solutions, visa facilitation and travel insurance among others will be under one platform making it easier and less costful to travel agencies.

    The partnership is projected to enable Ethiopian airlines expand its global NDC distribution with a particular focus on African markets and beyond.

    Ethiopian airlines area manager Kenya, Seble Azene (right) and AfroAtlas CEO, Ahmed Ugas during the signing of the partnership.
    Ethiopian airlines area manager Kenya, Seble Azene (right) and AfroAtlas CEO, Ahmed Ugas during the signing of the partnership

    According to Ethiopian airlines area manager Kenya, Seble Azene who was in attendance, the airlines flies to 128 destinations, 62 of them being in Africa.

    “The airline has been doing four daily frequencies to Nairobi and two to Mombasa before COVID disrupted us and we reduced them to two and one respectively,” she said.

    She added that the airline has 66 scheduled cargo destinations in Africa.

    Speaking during the partnership, AfroAtlas CEO, Ahmed Ugas said; “the innovative platform will enhance the digital distribution for ET’s NDC content and provide travel agents with more effective merchandising, access to rich content, and product personalisation.”

  • Separate Mpesa from Safaricom, Hon John Kiarie Proposal

    Separate Mpesa from Safaricom, Hon John Kiarie Proposal

    Dagoretti South MP John Kiarie wants the M-Pesa service to be separated from the giant telecommunications company Safaricom and its other carrier services.

    KJ proposed that the Safaricom business should be split so that the mobile telephone services will remain under the regulation of the Communications Authority of Kenya, while M-Pesa will be under the administration of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK).

    Speaking during an induction meeting of newly elected MPs on Tuesday, September 20, at the Safari Park Hotel in Nairobi, the Kenya Kwanza Alliance lawmaker argued Safaricom and other telcos were operating like banks.

    “We have companies that are registered as communication companies that are doubling up as banks. As it is right now, they fall and are regulated by the Communications Authority, but because they are also transacting money, some regulations come from CBK that they depend on,” Kiarie said.

    M-Pesa marks 15th anniversary M-Pesa handles over 61 million daily transactions, making it the largest fintech provider in Africa. The service has grown to over 51 million customers in seven markets led by Kenya. It also operates in Tanzania, Mozambique, Lesotho, Ghana, Egypt and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

    The statistics were released by the telco in March when M-Pesa marked 15 years of service since its launch in Kenya in March 2007.

    Safaricom recorded KSh 50 billion in gross profit from M-Pesa, according to its financial report for the year ending March 2022. The company attributed the growth in M-Pesa profit to an increase in mobile money uptake, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic shift to cashless transactions. “The growth in technology helped businesses to adopt online payments, a move that contributed to increased uptake of the mobile money services,” said the telco.

     

     

  • Opportunity through uncertainty

    After a stellar GDP growth performance in 2021, Africa finds itself in the midst of remarkable uncertainty. The continent’s response to a fundamental shift in the international food and energy landscape will produce a wide range of investment opportunities.

    The Africa Risk-Reward Index is an authoritative guide for policymakers, business leaders, and investors. The report details developments in the investment landscape in major African markets and delivers a grounded, longer-term outlook of key trends shaping investment in these economies.

    Africa’s GDP grew by an estimated 6.9% in 2021, revealing positive forward momentum. However, the continent will continue to face uncertainty. The after-effects of the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are projected to impact the African continent’s economic outlook for many years to come.

    In 2021, about 22 million jobs were lost due to the pandemic, with 30 million people being pushed into extreme poverty. This number is estimated to rise by a further 1.8 million people during 2022. Increased costs, supply chain disruption, and climate change have exacerbated the continent’s food crisis, and across Africa, anti-government sentiment is already high and rising, as governments are seen to be failing to address socio-economic challenges. This year’s risk-reward scores paint a picture of a continent at inflection point, where opportunities abound at a time of high uncertainty.

    In the report, we examine three major themes outlined below, summarising our views on Africa’s trajectory.

    This article explores how the urgent global transition away from fossil fuels, combined with the disruption to European energy markets, has prompted a renewed focus on energy in Africa – both as a source of energy for other parts of the world and as a continent with the potential to “leapfrog” development through the widespread adoption of clean energy.

    There are opportunities across the energy sub-sectors (renewables, oil and gas, hydrogen) and throughout the value chain (extraction, developers, generation, transmission, distribution, export), with governments largely welcoming investors.

    “The [energy] transition in Africa needs to be staggered; many countries have and will exploit their fossil fuels while also developing their focus on renewables. Countries with high LNG potential, such as Angola, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Nigeria, will see sustained investor interest, and conversations around ending flaring will be important to watch,” says Patricia Rodrigues, Senior Analyst at Control Risks.

    “Private actors will need to be mindful of political risks, given competition for projects in saturated markets, as well as contractual issues with governments, which can lead to delays. Investors should be aware of the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) concerns associated with their industry, given the potential for “greenwashing” and the continued extractive nature of many projects,” says Rodrigues.

    Solving Africa’s food security conundrum

    The disruption to global supply chains brought about first by the COVID-19 pandemic and more recently by the conflict in Ukraine have highlighted Africa’s external dependence for most of its commodities and severe gaps in the continent’s internal supply chains, such as food. These challenges are prevalent, despite African countries having committed in 2019 to speed up regional integration under the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).

    Most of Africa’s agriculture-related activity is subsistence, and where it is not, getting food from farm to end-consumer is costly. A large infrastructure deficit in transport and power remains a key obstacle to addressing these challenges.

    “Africa’s dependence on imports of even the most basic foodstuffs is one of its most pressing issues”, according to Jacques Nel, head of Africa macro at Oxford Economics Africa. “Given the continent’s dependence on rainfed agriculture and susceptibility to climate change, in the context of an international shift towards shoring-up national food security, the situation could deteriorate further. Addressing this issue will require investment, both public and private, in storage & warehousing, agro-processing, agricultural infrastructure, and financial services. Technological developments in the fintech and agricultural sectors as well as progress on the AfCFTA could catalyze the development needed.”

    However, the continent’s policy environment is heavily protectionist, which will prevent improvements in the short term: many of the trade protocols of AfCFTA remain theoretical. Even within individual blocs, such as the East African Community and the Economic Community of West African States, there is competition rather than cooperation to serve primarily non-African markets. Land is also a highly politicised issue across the continent. Meanwhile, the so-called success stories in the agriculture sector also tend to be primarily extractive and focused on low-calorie crops (such as horticulture and cocoa). Questions also remain about value-addition and agri-manufacturing capabilities, which are growing from a very low base across the continent.

    Cash-strapped governments navigating a wave of discontent

    Anti-government sentiment is high and rising across many of Africa’s populations, with governments accused of failing to tackle the rising cost of living. Although this has driven unrest in many African capitals, it is unlikely to precipitate significant political change, as elites have either ignored concerns, co-opted popular movements to take power or to strengthen their own hold on authority, or simply do not have the financial capabilities to do anything tangible (with weak or non-existent welfare systems).

    Incumbents and elites have made weak promises of reform but are unlikely to follow through despite rising public anger. Examples include Nigeria, Ghana, Uganda, South Africa – the common thread being that opposition in these countries is vocal and disruptive but is mostly ineffective in engendering change.

    A string of coups (in Sudan and several West African nations) was conducted on “behalf of the people”, with militaries deposing long-serving leaders and their incumbent parties. However, rather than leading to tangible change, military regimes have reneged or delayed transitions, proving themselves to be just as much a part of the establishment as the leaders they deposed. Elsewhere, in Kenya, presidential frontrunner William Ruto has adopted populist campaigns as part of his bid to differentiate himself from elites. However, he is unlikely to follow through on populist promises, as he is part of the country’s elite.

    Political stability risks will be heightened in the coming year as socio-economic challenges exacerbate deep inequalities and highlight governments’ inability to address them. In the year ahead, businesses are likely to be directly or indirectly affected by protests and should plan for risks such as incidental security threats, supply chain delays, looting and vandalism, or duty of care concerns for employees.

    Methodology

    The Africa Risk-Reward Index is defined by the combination of risk and reward scores that integrate economic and political risk analysis by Control Risks and Oxford Economics Africa.

    Risk scores from each country originate from the Economic and Political Risk Evaluator (EPRE), while the reward scores incorporate medium-term economic growth forecasts, economic size, economic structure, and demographics.

    About Control Risks

    Control Risks is a specialist risk consultancy that helps create secure, compliant, and resilient organisations. We believe that taking risks is essential to success, so we provide the insight and intelligence you need to realise opportunities and grow.

    From the boardroom to the remotest location, we cut through noise and emotion to give you dependable advice when you need it most. We have been assisting clients in Africa for the past 40 years and today we have eight offices across five countries on the continent, alongside an unrivalled network of embedded consultants and on-the-ground network. We work with the largest investors into Africa and the largest African companies, from mining and energy to media and telecommunications.

    About Oxford Economics Africa

    Oxford Economics Africa, previously known as NKC African Economics, based in South Africa, has specialised in macroeconomic research in Africa since 2003. Insights are provided within the context of comprehensive knowledge of the African continent, its history, and each country’s unique political and economic setting.

    In 2015 we became part of the Oxford Economics group, to better combine Oxford Economics’ global base and unparalleled technical expertise in modelling with our Africa-specific skills and insight.

    Oxford Economics is a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis. Our worldwide client base comprises more than 1,500 international corporations, financial institutions, government organisations, and universities.

    Headquartered in Oxford, with offices around the world, Oxford Economics employs 450 people, including 300 economists and analysts. The group’s best-of-class global economic and industry models and analytical tools give us an unmatched ability to forecast external market trends and assess their economic, social, and business impact.

    About Control Risks and Oxford Economics

    Control Risks and Oxford Economics have partnered to provide an innovative political and economic risk forecasting service that takes a holistic view of risk in a complex, rapidly changing, globalised world.

    Control Risks and Oxford Economics combine extensive geopolitical, operational and security expertise with rigorous economic forecasts and models on 200 countries and 100 industries. Together, we offer full-spectrum consulting that enables your organisation to navigate the world of political and economic risk. Covering all aspects of the investment journey, including security and integrity risk, our joint consultancy practice can overlay geopolitical and economic scenarios to bring new insights and direction to your business.